Expected Value Calculator

The expected value (EV) calculator measures the long term profitability of a bet based on probability and price. Instead of asking whether a wager will win or lose once, EV evaluates what would happen if the same bet were placed repeatedly under the same conditions.

Expected value combines your estimated win probability with the sportsbook’s offered odds to calculate your average profit or loss per bet over time. A positive EV indicates that the price being offered is better than the true probability implies, meaning the bet should be profitable in the long run. A negative EV suggests the opposite.

For example, if a team is priced at +150, the implied probability is 40 percent. If you believe the true probability of winning is 45 percent, the bet has positive expected value. Over a large sample size, consistently taking positions where your estimated probability exceeds the implied probability is how professional bettors generate sustainable edge.

This tool allows you to input your wager size, the market odds, and your assessed win probability to calculate both expected profit and return on investment. It removes emotional bias and replaces intuition with math based decision making.

Understanding EV is foundational for value betting, line shopping, and identifying mispriced markets. While short term variance is unavoidable, consistently placing positive EV wagers is what drives long term profitability.